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Theresa May Projected to Lose Her Majority in U.K. Parliament

June 8, 2017 9:38 PM
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Theresa May Projected to Lose Her Majority in U.K. Parliament

The opposition Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, appeared on track for 266 seats, up 34. And the Scottish National Party is also projected to be down to 34 seats from 56.

If the poll is accurate, Britons confounded expectations and the betting markets once again. Indeed, once again, Britain could be faced with renewed political uncertainty as it soon must begin negotiations with leaders in Brussels on withdrawing from the European Union.

Official results were expected to begin arriving within an hour or so, with the final outcome not likely to be known until early Friday morning. But the British pound fell sharply after the exit poll projected that the Conservatives would not win a majority.

Within seconds of the exit poll being broadcast, the pound lost more than 2 cents against the dollar, falling from $1.2955 to $1.2752.

Given the two terrorist attacks that took place during the campaign, security was tight on Thursday as Britons voted, with a heavy police presence.

Maria Balas, 28, a waitress, said security was the prime issue. “England is under attack and at this time we need a strong leader more than ever,” Ms. Balas said after casting her vote for the governing Conservative Party. “I don’t like Theresa May, and I wouldn’t have bothered to vote if this election was all about giving her more power to take us into the mess of Brexit, but now we are dealing with a security crisis and I think she is the most qualified person in the running who can deal with that.”

In London’s eastern borough of Hackney, however, young people seemed more concerned about future job prospects.

“The Tories only care about the rich and their interests,” said Luke Wright, 26, who earns £7.50 an hour, or about $9.70, working at a stationery shop.

“I have computer skills that could get me a much higher paying job, but they are given to people who could afford university fees and living costs,” he said. “If Labour won I’d have a chance to make more cash and get out of this job that I’m overqualified for.”

Tensions were high in the Stamford Hill area of East London on Thursday after a man started shouting at a group of Jewish pedestrians, “Allah, Allah, I’m going to kill you all.” He was quickly detained by the police.

Mrs. May, 60, rolled the dice on April 18 when she broke her promise not to call an early election, three years ahead of schedule, but did so only because she believed the dice were loaded in her favor. The plan was to capitalize on her 20-point lead in most polls to garner a strong mandate to see her and her new government through the immensely complicated negotiations on Britain’s exit from the European Union.

She went into this election with a working majority of just 17 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament. In the 2015 election, the Conservatives surprised the pollsters by winning 331 seats, a majority of 12.

While she was personally against Britain’s exit from the European Union, or Brexit, in the June 2016 referendum, the vote in favor caused David Cameron to resign, and she emerged as a kind of accidental prime minister.

But she promised voters that she would honor the results of the referendum, using her reputation for toughness “to get the best deal for Britain.” If the Europeans proved unforthcoming, she promised that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” appealing to the British sense of nationalism and self-reliance.

That included a pledge to end unfettered immigration, an effort to reach out to the nearly 13 percent of voters in 2015 who voted for the U.K. Independence Party, whose platform was anti-immigrant and pro-Brexit. Many of those voters, especially in the West Midlands and the north, were traditionally Labour supporters, but with the collapse of UKIP, many of them were thought to lean to the Conservatives.

That meant Labour-held seats were ripe for the picking, especially since northerners were not enamored of Mr. Corbyn, 68, the far-left urbanite who seemed weak on defense and security, shaky on economic management, passionate about places like Venezuela and Nicaragua, had once had strong sympathies for the Irish Republican Army and liked to make jam.

And the centrist Liberal Democrats, who emphasized rerunning the Brexit debate in a second referendum, were getting very little traction. While the business elite were laser focused on the issue of Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, opinion polls showed that the general population had moved beyond that and cared more about domestic issues.

And strangely, perhaps, for such an important issue, the economic impact of Brexit barely figured in this campaign, perhaps because its strongest effects, should they materialize, will not be felt for some time.

Mrs. May and the Conservatives ran an unusually personal campaign, trying to emphasize the differences between her and Mr. Corbyn on questions of leadership, reliability, economic competence and security, helped by the rabidly anti-Corbyn, pro-Brexit tabloid press.

But the Conservatives did not count on her poor performance on television and shaky presence on the campaign trail, particularly when confronted by hostile questioning. Rather than “strong and stable,” as her mantra went, Mrs. May could seem brittle and querulous, repeating slogans rather than dipping into substance.

Her party’s manifesto was also vague on figures, and her effort to find more funds for social care backfired when she announced, with little consultation with her cabinet colleagues, her intention to charge the better-off more for extended social care, saying that old people could keep assets up to 100,000 pounds, including the value of their homes. Quickly labeled “the dementia tax,” it damaged her badly with the Conservatives’ main supporters: older Britons.

Worse, it forced her into another U-turn on policy, the first during a campaign in recent memory. That and her poor campaign performance damaged her image, at least to some degree, within her own party and the country itself.

“Theresa May doesn’t look happy on the campaign trail,” said Mark Wickham-Jones, professor of political science at the University of Bristol. “And Labour have proved quite effective at chipping away at things like her reluctance to debate.”

At the same time, Mr. Corbyn, who survived an attempt last year by his own members of Parliament to unseat him as Labour leader, had a very good campaign. Appealing to the young, especially in the big cities, Mr. Corbyn ran on a platform promising more social justice, free college tuition, more money for the National Health Service and welfare, the re-nationalization of the railways and utilities, and much higher taxes on corporations and those earning over £80,000, about $104,000, a year.

His performances on television were calm and avuncular, with a touch of humor. And as the campaign wore on, he appeared to win back the support of most Labour voters in 2015, plus some Liberal Democrats and Greens.

The polls narrowed. But the Conservatives never lost their lead in any major poll. And party professionals on the ground, especially in marginal seats in the Midlands and the north that the Conservatives had targeted, reported continuing resistance to Mr. Corbyn as a credible prime minister.

The campaign was also marred by two terrorist attacks that caused numerous casualties, in Manchester on May 22 and then, last Saturday, in London. These also seemed to work against Mrs. May, at least at first. As home secretary for six years before becoming prime minister, she was criticized for the failures of the security services to stop the plots and for supporting cuts in beat policing.

Yet, late polling indicated that she benefited from her tough response, especially after the London attack, promising new counterterrorism legislation, and had widened the gap with Labour at the end.

The candidates spent the last day of official campaigning racing around the country — Mrs. May by jet, Mr. Corbyn by train. “They underestimated us, didn’t they?” he told a rally in Glasgow.

Mrs. May, who refused to debate Mr. Corbyn face-to-face throughout the campaign, appeared in carefully managed settings. But in an indication of her party’s confidence, she continued to campaign in seats the Tories think they can win, while Mr. Corbyn tended to stick to seats Labour could not afford to lose.

In a last appeal to voters, Mrs. May said: “If we get Brexit right, we can build a Britain that is more prosperous and more secure, a Britain in which prosperity and opportunity is shared by all,” asking Britons to trust her to “knuckle down and get the job done.”

Source: nytimes.com

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June 8, 2017 9:40 PM

And there was a wild card. Northern Ireland’s Sinn Fein party, which won seven seats, said it would not occupy them, in keeping with its longstanding policy. That would lower the threshold for Mrs. May’s party to establish an effective majority.

Video

June 8, 2017 9:40 PM

Mrs. May, the Conservative leader, three years early, expecting to cruise to a smashing victory that would win her a mandate to see through the long and difficult negotiations with European leaders over the terms of leaving the union.

Publish Date

June 8, 2017 9:40 PM

Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain suffered a humiliating setback in the 2017 general election. Her opponent Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, re-energized his party and altered the landscape of British politics. So what's next?

Credit

June 8, 2017 9:39 PM

“Whatever the final result, we have already changed the face of British politics,” Mr. Corbyn said.

OPEN Interactive Graphic

June 8, 2017 9:39 PM

Last month, in an effort to show “just how much is at stake” in the election, Mrs. May acknowledged that even a small loss of seats would amount to a defeat.

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June 8, 2017 9:39 PM

The opposition , led by Jeremy Corbyn, was projected to be on track for 262 seats, up 30 from 2015, significantly elevating Mr. Corbyn’s standing after predictions that his party would be further weakened.

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June 8, 2017 9:39 PM

But according to results reported early Friday morning, the extraordinary gamble Mrs. May made in calling the election backfired. She could no longer command enough seats to avoid a , meaning that no party has enough lawmakers to establish outright control.

New York edition

June 8, 2017 9:39 PM

The forecast raised the prospect that neither major party would be able to form a government without help from another party. If a coalition cannot be formed, another election could be in the offing.